Time：2023. 9. 22（Friday）10:30-12:00
Venue：Building 2, Room 235, Songjiang Campus
Speaker：Sun Chen, Researcher, School of Economics and Management, Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin
Host：Assistant Professor Chen Shu
Topic：Non-Additivity of Subjective Expectations over Different Time Intervals
Abstract:
We examine the additivity of stock-market expectations over different time intervals. When asked about a ten-year interval, survey respondents expect a stock-price change that is not equal to, but closer to zero than, the sum of their expectations over two shorter time intervals that cover the same ten years. Such sub-additivity is irrational in that it cannot stem from aggregating short-term expectations. Model estimates show that the pattern is consistent with a time perception where shorter time intervals have a proportionally larger weight. We also find that the respondents’ degree of additivity is correlated with making larger financial investments.
Guest Speaker
Sun Chen, Researcher
School of Economics and Management, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany
Sun Chen is a researcher at the School of Economics and Management at Humboldt University Berlin in Germany. He graduated from Tilburg University in the Netherlands in 2018 with a PhD in Economics. His research fields include behavioral economics and behavioral finance, with research directions including intertemporal selection, belief formation and change in asset prices, etc. His research findings are published in journals such as Experimental Economics.
